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    这位美军前刺杀对象,如今领跑伊拉克选举

    2018-5-15 14:38| 发布者: Huarenpt| 查看: 3382| 评论: 0|来自: 观察者网

    5月12日,伊拉克举行了自战胜极端组织“伊斯兰国”(IS)以来的第一次,同时也是美军推翻萨达姆政权以来的第四次大选,约7000名候选人将角逐329个议会席位。据媒体此前预测,本次选举的焦点在于亲美的阿巴迪当局与前 ...

    5月12日,伊拉克举行了自战胜极端组织“伊斯兰国”(IS)以来的第一次,同时也是美军推翻萨达姆政权以来的第四次大选,约7000名候选人将角逐329个议会席位。

    据媒体此前预测,本次选举的焦点在于亲美的阿巴迪当局与前交通部长阿米里为首的亲伊朗势力之间的较量。

    但意想不到的是,从目前被统计出的91%的选票来看,在票数上暂时领先的是之前并没有被看好的什叶派神职人员萨德尔(Sadr)的阵营“行走者联盟”,他赢得了超过130万张选票,在全伊拉克329个席位的议会中获得54个席位,居各派之首。

    更令人意外的是,作为一名什叶派宗教领袖,这位黑马的不但有着鲜明的反美色彩,以至于连美国前总统布什都曾考虑要杀死他,同时也抵制伊朗在伊拉克强大的影响力。伊朗方面先前放话,不支持萨德尔阵营在伊拉克掌权。

    路透社分析,无论是哪一支政治联盟最终赢得伊拉克议会选举,都必须面对美国退出伊朗核问题全面协议的现实。不少伊拉克人担心,美方这一决定会加剧中东地区紧张局势,美国和伊朗在伊拉克的“斗法”势必更加激烈。

    萨德尔的支持者们在庆祝本阵营领先 @视觉中国

    既不亲美也不亲伊的黑马萨德尔

    美国CNBC电视台5月15日报道称,萨德尔在此前以反美运动而闻名。2003年,他创建了“迈赫迪军”,这一武装组织在伊拉克数次与美军发生冲突,人数多达1万人。

    《纽约时报》称,在战争初期,美国总统乔治·布什将其称之为敌人,甚至一度考虑过让美国军方逮捕他或杀死他。他在视频电话会议上说:“我们不能允许一个人改变这个国家的进程。”

    2008年,“迈赫迪军”解散,但在2014年,随着IS崛起,“迈赫迪军”又重新集结以对抗IS。由于他的父亲是一名伊拉克什叶派的阿亚图拉(宗教领袖),因此他在伊拉克什叶派当中有着很强的政治感召力。

    不过,作为一名什叶派宗教领袖,萨德尔后来还接触了逊尼派及其在海湾地区的盟友。2017年,他访问了沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋,并与沙特王储本·萨勒曼会面。

    萨德尔的支持者们在庆祝本阵营领先 @视觉中国

    CNBC称,他的民粹主义主张很受伊拉克穷人和年轻人的欢迎,萨德尔抨击现政府和亲伊朗势力的腐败,同时也抵制伊朗对伊拉克的影响,他声称要组建一个包括伊拉克共产党在内的世俗政治联盟来克服困扰伊拉克政局已久的宗派主义。

    而据当地电视台的报道,萨德尔的支持者在庆祝自己在所在省份占优时,也喊出了“伊朗走了,巴格达依旧自由”这样的话语。

    萨德尔的支持者们在庆祝本阵营领先 @视觉中国

    有分析师表示,萨德尔的强势证明了他有着相对忠实的追随者,还能在跨宗派的挑战下有效地动员选民。CNBC认为,萨德尔这匹黑马可能会戏剧性地改变伊拉克的政治格局及其与美国、伊朗等外部大国的关系。

    不过,虽然萨德尔票数领先,但由于目前没有一个集团能赢得绝对多数,因此他必须与其他势力联合,组建联合政府。新华社称,本次伊拉克大选约7000名候选人和包括政党、政治联盟和独立候选人在内的约90个政治实体角逐议会的329个席位。

    沮丧、分裂的伊拉克政坛

    美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)报道称,在伊拉克战争后的第一次选举(2005年)中,什叶派政党曾作为一个单一的组织进行了竞选。这既是为了确保什叶派在多年逊尼派统治之后的首次胜利,也是为了巩固立法机构的权力,以颁布他们想要的法律,而不必去争取其他派系的支持。

    但如今,什叶派分裂成的五个政党各自为战。

    现任总理阿巴迪在此次大选中仅排名第三,令一些预测他会胜选的人大跌眼镜,因为阿巴迪是领导伊拉克战胜IS的领导人,这是只有阿巴迪才有的一大优势。英国《卫报》甚至认为,阿巴迪在选举中的表现对于支持伊拉克铲除IS的美国而言,是个“糟糕的回报”。

    阿巴迪 图片来源:新华网

    对此CNBC报道称,尽管击败IS令人兴奋,但现任领导层并没有为改善腐败等现象做出过努力,这让伊拉克人认为这次选举并不会成为他们改变的契机。

    此前被认为是阿巴迪最大竞争对手的是伊拉克前交通部长哈迪·阿米里,阿米里此前属于阿巴迪阵营,不过现在他已经从那里脱离出来。阿米里一直在尖锐地抨击阿巴迪的亲西方倾向,坚称伊拉克最可靠的盟友仍然是伊朗。

    据CNBC报道,由于地理、文化和宗教上的联系、庞大的什叶派人口和在协助打击IS中发挥的作用,伊朗在伊拉克有着巨大的影响力,且反对被认为是最亲西方的阿巴迪连任。

    尽管伊拉克政坛已经分裂,但CNBC称伊朗正在伊拉克同时支持好几派别,以此作为跟下一届伊拉克政府讨价还价的筹码。

    令美国、沙特、以色列不安的“什叶派新月”

    为抗衡伊朗的巨大影响力,逊尼派的沙特已经在与伊拉克政府接触,还承诺提供15亿美元的重建资金,甚至不惜跟萨德尔这样的什叶派宗教领袖接触。

    不过,也许我们不能简单地用美沙/伊朗二分法来看待伊拉克政坛。

    CNN称,多年来笼罩着这个国家的宗派主义似乎正在消退,许多伊拉克人都表示,他们不会投票,因为大多数人都是熟悉的面孔,他们过去曾承诺要改变,但未能兑现。CNBC也报道称,选民投票率低至44.5%,显示选民普遍缺乏热情和悲观情绪。

    这个国家最高的什叶派宗教领袖西斯塔尼也没有坚持要求每个人都去投票,这表明人们对投票的态度有多么矛盾。过去,他曾要求伊拉克人参加选举,以确保什叶派在选举中表现良好。

    巴格达一位食品店的老板仍对萨达姆时代记忆犹新,他坚持认为,那些日子更好。

    伊战后,人们推倒萨达姆雕像 图片来源:新华社

    “我们感到安全,人们有工作,你可以说,生活很美好。”他说,“现在领导层和政坛都有腐败现象,我觉得以前的情况比较好......阿巴迪夹在美国、沙特和伊朗的锤钻之间,不觉得他能有啥建树。”

    如今,萨德尔的异军突起也让外界开始重新审视伊拉克政局。《卫报》就发文称,这次选举是否标志着自2003年美国入侵伊拉克以来,伊朗在该地区影响力稳步增长的“主流观点”出现了巨大的漏洞?

    「華人PT门户网」郑重声明:本则消息未经严格核实,也不代表本站观点,本站不承担任何法律责任。

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